Space investment and security

A ‘second space race’

Governments, militaries and commercial actors are expanding their activities in space, which now underpin communications, navigation, surveillance and data exchange. RAND experts describe this environment as a ‘second space race’, characterised by both immense opportunity and emerging risk. For Europe, the report argues, engagement in space is essential to economic prosperity, defence and security, technological leadership and the modern way of life.

During the year, the RAND Europe Space Hub (RESH) undertook a range of UK- and EU-funded studies on space policy, security, technology, and innovation and industry programmes.

Evaluating UK investment in ESA

The UK has been a member of the European Space Agency (ESA) since its founding in 1975. The partnership, managed by the UK Space Agency (UKSA), accounts for around 70–75 per cent of the Agency’s annual budget. With the UK aiming to secure a 10 per cent share of the global space market, RAND Europe experts identified a crucial window of opportunity for the country to exploit its potential in space.

Commissioned by UKSA, researchers from RAND Europe’s Science and Emerging Technology team found that UK investment in ESA offers substantial benefits in capability development, international influence and economic return. ESA contracts were found to generate significant and sustained gains for UK firms, boosting turnover, employment, productivity and private research and development investment. The research also highlighted how long-standing engagement with ESA has enabled UK organisations to develop world-leading technologies, facilities and mission leadership – including contributions to lunar and planetary exploration and the Lunar Pathfinder project.

The researchers concluded that very few of these benefits would be achievable outside ESA, and that UKSA acts as a vital bridge between policy and industry.

Space security and governance

Separately, RAND Europe’s Defence, Security and Justice team analysed space governance and security, with a focus on hybrid threats in outer space and the potentially destabilising effects of new space and counter-space technologies. This includes a three-year project on the implications for strategic stability of dual-use space systems – those with civil, commercial and possible military applications, which bring ambiguity about their intended use.

Working with RAND colleagues in the US, the team is delivering Track 1.5 dialogues with experts and government or military stakeholders from Europe, the Americas and the Indo-Pacific. RAND Europe also published a social network analysis mapping the growing complexity of space actors. The report describes strengthening space governance as a collective-action challenge that demands multilateral cooperation at a time of increased tension.